According to the newly released “National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report for the First Three Quarters of 2019", China Electricity Council (CEC) expects 2019 incremental power capacity to reach approximately 100GW, including 60GW from non-fossil sources.
Total installed capacity is forecasted to reach 2,000GW by the end of 2019, an increase of 5.3% YoY, including 200GW of solar and 210GW of wind.
At the end of September, the total installed capacity of non-fossil energy generation was 810GW, an increase of 1.2% over the same period last year, accounting for 41.4% of the total, including 190GW of solar and 200GW of wind.
Based on the forecast by CEC, it is implied that the wind and solar industries will each connect another 10GW during the fourth quarter, pointing towards 2019 incremental capacity of 26GW for solar and 32GW for wind. While this would be the lowest PV year since 2015, the Chinese wind industry has a chance to break its all time record of 32.9GW which was achieved in 2015.
At the same time, non-fossil energy generation is growing rapidly. In the first three quarters of the year, grid-connected solar power has generated 170.7TWh, an increase of 29.0% YoY. Meanwhile, average solar utilization hours have reached 1,010hrs and curtailment has continued to improve.