News Summary:
Statistics: State Grid Forecasts 3.5% Rise in National Electricity Consumption
State Grid announced a forecast increase of 3.5% in energy consumption levels for 2016 compared to the previous year. The first half of 2016 saw 2,780 TWh of demand, an increase of 2.7% over 2015. State Grid believes total consumption for 2016 will be up to 5,770 TWh. New installed capacity for 2016H1 include:
The top contributors of new capacity growth are from the following regional grids:
Typical growth is not typical in China — there have been consecutive growth years in the 10%+ range, followed by either a single digit contraction or flat growth. 3.5% is an aggressive growth number for an established energy base, however, for China, this is still a healthy level and we'll need a few more years of data to see if 3.5% represents the new normal.
Distribution of New Installed Capacity for 2016
Source: SGCC, Azure International
Source: SGCC, Azure International
Source: SGCC, Azure International
News Summary:
Statistics: Shanxi Province H1 2016 Energy Data Released
Shanxi Province data has been published for H1 2016. The data includes: generation, consumption, operations, and business entities. Energy generation levels for 2016 are in line with 2015 data, meaning from the energy-side, there has been no major downward pressure from macroeconomic trends. (NEA CN)
While generation levels remain healthy, underneath the surface we expect to see mid-term impacts from the lack of quality transmission lines in the region and demand growth. Azure is tracking the provincial markets for economic signals.
Figure: Shanxi Province Monthly Generation Data in 100s of GWh: 2016 H1 vs 2015
Source: NEA
News Summary:
Data: First Half 2016 Power Plant Utilization Hours Published
The NEA published the first half of 2016 utilization hours for power plants at the 6MW and above installed capacity. Average utilization hours for all power plants was 1,797 hours, a decrease by 137 hours (about 7%) from 2015 levels in the same time period. The table below summarizes the total installed capacity and utilization hours for the first half of 2016 and change relative to 2015 levels. (NEA CN)
While the average decreased, the utilization hours per province varies greatly. Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, for example, were at 1,441 and 1,377 hours, respectively. Due to the major difficulties integrated wind, lower user demand, and lack of sufficient transmission capacity, Xinjiang, Gansu, Jilin, and Ningxia provinces all had less than 680 utilization hours. Gansu is aware of this situation and, as discussed later, is attempting to increase utilization hours with a storage plant solution.
Table: First Half 2016 Utilization Hours for 6MW+ Power Plants
Source: NEA
News Summary:
Generation: China Longyuan Power Group Generation Increases by 5.4%
In the first half of 2016, China Longyuan Power Group (CLPG) increased ints power generation by 5.4%. CLPG is the 35th largest power company in the world. From January to June, CLPG generated 20,425 GWh of power. Key statistics include:
Source: CLPG, Azure International
Policy: Guangxi and Guangdong Trading Centers Open
Guangxi and Guangdong electric trading centers opened at the end of June. The two trading centers are part of China Southern Grid, which estimates 18%, or 144TWh total, of electricity consumed will be traded. (CSG CN)
Transmission: Ximeng-Shandong 1000 kV UHV Transmission Line Fully Operational
The Ximeng-Shandong 1000 kV UHV power line is now fully operational. Key statistics are:
With the new transmission line, approximately 2GW of power from Inner Mongolia is being sent to Shandong province, resulting in a total of 10GW of power coming from outside the province.
Ximeng-Shandong Transmission Line
Source: NEA, Azure International
News Summary:
Wind: 7GW of New Installed Capacity From January to May 2016
In the first five months of 2016, 7GW of new wind capacity was installed. China is on track for installing 20GW of wind in 2016. Wind curtailment, on the other hand, remains at roughly 15% for the national average, with some regions in the 30% average range in 2015. (Recharge EN)
Finance: Envision Energy Invests in AutoGrid
Envision Energy was part of a $20 million financing round for AutoGrid Systems. AutoGrid is a big-data software company which helps optimize demand response programs in America and runs virtual power plants in Europe. (BJX CN)
Envision is a number of growing Chinese firms investing into foreign companies who have no immediate plans for China expansion. These investments, however, provide Chinese companies with access to foreign talent and technology. When the timing is right, expect AutoGrid technology to come to the Mainland.