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Plan: Solar Development Plan of the 13th Five Year Plan “十三五” Published by NEA
In December the NEA published the Solar Power Development Plan, part of China's national 13th Five Year Plan. According to the document, by the end of 2015, total installed solar capacity was 43 GW, and total power generation from solar sources was nearly 40 TWh , approximately 0.7% of national power generation. By 2020, installed solar capacity is targeted to reach 110 GW, with total power generation more than tripling to 150 TWh, 1.6% of national power generation. (NEA CN)
Source: Azure International
While not specified in the Solar Power Development Plan, under the Electricity Development Plan, the Solar Power target for 2020 further calls for 60 GW of distributed solar and 5 GW of concentrated solar, with the remaining 45 GW assumed to be standard utility scale solar.
While the explosive buildout of utility scale solar projects in 2016 puts the current installation numbers at 77 GW at 2016 year end, the majority of this growth has been from utility scale projects rushing to completion before the large tariff cut in June. Currently distributed solar in China is hovering at around only 7 GW. Therefore while the 110 GW target will likely be surpassed, it is unlikely that distributed solar will be able to reach its sub-target of 60 GW.
Plan: Biomass Development Plan of the 13th Five Year Plan “十三五” Published by NEA
The NEA recently published the Wind Power Development Plan, part of China's national 13th Five Year Plan. According to the document, by the end of 2015, total installed wind capacity was 10.3 GW, and total power generation from wind 52 TWh, approximately 0.92% of national power generation. By 2020, installed wind capacity will reach 15 GW, with total power generation nearly doubling to 90 TWh, 1.3% of national power generation. (NEA CN)
Biomass pipeline covering the period of the 13th Five Year Plan
Source: Azure International
During the 13th Five Year Plan, total investment in the Biomass industry will reach 196 billion RMB. Of this 196 billion RMB, 40 billion RMB will go towards power generation, 120 billion RMB for biogas, 18 billion RMB for biomass briquette industries, and 18 billion RMB for investment into liquid biofuels.
Plan: Wind Development Plan of the 13th Five Year Plan “十三五” Published by NEA
The NEA recently published the Wind Power Development Plan of the 13th Five Year Plan. The development plan lays out comprehensive onshore and offshore installation targets per province for 2020. According to the document, by the end of 2015, total installed wind capacity was 129 GW, and total power generation from wind 186.3 TWh, which was 3.3% of national power consumption. By 2020, installed wind capacity will be 210 GW, with total power generation more than doubling to 420 TWh, 6% of national power consumption. The development plan also highlights cross provincial UHV transmission lines under construction or that have recently come online, aimed at delivering power from the north to east and central China. (NEA CN)
Long Distance Cross-Provincial UHV Transmission Lines Highlighted in Wind Power Development Plan
2015 Installed Capacity and 2020 Targets, by province
Source: Azure International, NEA
The wind development plan calls for continued capacity expansion by 2020, however, as seen in the chart above, 64% of new capacity additions, 64 GW, will be in southern provinces with less robust wind resources. This reflects central planners desire to ease high curtailment levels in the “three norths”, 三北, area of the Northwest, Northeast and North China grids. Provinces seeing the largest capacity increase to 2020 are Yunnan (7.9 GW, 191%); Hebei (7.8 GW, 76%); Jiangsu (5.4 GW, 131%); and Henan (5.1 GW, 559%). Provinces that saw the highest levels of curtailment in 2016, such as Gansu (1.48 GW, 12%) Xinjiang (1.09 GW, 6%) and Jilin (0.56 GW, 13%) are targeted for much smaller capacity increases. Offshore wind development is also emphasized, with Fujian set to build 3 GW, or 60% of total offshore wind, by 2020.
Statistics: Utilization Hours for First Three Quarters of 2016 Published by the NEA
National Utilization Hours for First Three Quarters of 2016
(Source: Azure International)
The top two provinces for wind utilization hours are southwestern provinces, with Yunnan at 1,712 hrs and Sichuan at 1,643 hrs. In the same time, Gansu, Xinjiang and Jilin utilization hours remain low, at 870, 946, 951, respectively. With regards to thermal generation, an average of 3,071 hrs is the lowest level since 2005. (NEA CN)
Wind: First Three Quarters On-Grid Wind Data Published by the NEA
The NEA published wind operations data from January to the end of September 2016. Ten GW of wind power came online during this period and wind power sent to the grid reached 169.3 TWh. The average utilization hours was 1,251, representing a decrease of 66 hours, or 5% from the same period in 2015. Wind curtailment was 39.5 TWh for an average curtailment rate of 19%. (NEA CN)
In line with Azure's previous coverage of renewable curtailment in China, wind curtailment covered in this period is heaviest in Xinjiang (41%), Gansu (46%), IMAR (23%) and Jilin (34%). These provinces have historically been suffering from the highest curtailment rates in China, as local power consumption is relatively low while installed wind capacity is high. Xinjiang and Gansu have taken numerous measures to alleviate this issue, with Xinjiang investing 180 million RMB in wind-to-heat projects, while Gansu recently completed a ±800kV UHV DC transmission line that should help send renewable power reach demand centers in Hunan province
13th Five Year Plan: National Electric Power Sector Development Plan Released by the NEA
On November 7th, the long-awaited Electric Power Sector Development Plan of the 13th Five Year Plan was released by the NEA. Although further details are slated for release at a later date, key takeaways from this release include:
Along with renewable capacity expansion, the development plan includes concrete benchmarks for mitigating renewable curtailment, with the NEA calling for renewable curtailment to be limited to a "reasonable level" of 5%. National curtailment levels for wind and solar in 2015 were 15% and 13%, respectively. The plan also calls for implementing power trading spot market trials by the end of 2018, and a national rollout of spot markets by 2020.
Solar: CNBM International Purchases Ukrainian Solar Farm Operator Neptune Solar LLC
CNBM International Corp of China recently completed a 100% purchase of Ukrainian Solar farm operator Neptune Solar LLC. Neptune Solar has a photovoltaic (PV) park in Mykolaiv region with a capacity of 29.3 MW operational since 2013. The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine has already approved the deal with CNBM, and CNBM is said to be interested in other solar assets in Ukraine as well.(SEE)
We expected overseas acquisitions to continue as domestic PV projects face lower tariffs and stiff solar curtailment. The national curtailment rate for 2015 was 13%, however, provinces with higher solar penetration such as Gansu and Xinjiang have been experiencing curtailment rates as high as 32% and 33%.
(Ukrainian Solar Farm, Source: SEE)